Finance · Modeling Discipline

Samso Managed Services · Last Updated · Apr 2026

Sensitivity & Scenario Modeling

A modeling discipline that turns a single forecast into a rigorous picture of risk: tornado bars rank the levers that move equity value most, two-way heatmaps show how the answer travels across paired drivers, and scenarios stack consistently from one input set.

What the managed workflow does

Identifies the levers that matter

Every input variable is profiled by impact. The tornado tells you what to argue about - the rest is noise.

Builds two-way sensitivities

WACC × growth, multiple × forecast EBITDA, NRR × CAC payback. Every paired driver gets a 5×5 grid with the implied value in each cell.

Stacks scenarios consistently

Base / bull / bear cases share a single assumption set. Flip one input - three forecasts re-roll automatically without divergence.

Surfaces breakage points

Cells that cross covenant thresholds, cash-out dates, or rating triggers are flagged on the grid so leadership reads risk, not just outcomes.

One-way tornado · two-way heatmap · driver-level risk

6 Drivers · 5×5 Grid · 25 Cases · Base $42 / Share

TORNADO · ONE-WAY SENSITIVITY$ / share impact when each driver swings to its low / high−$10−$5+$5+$10$0Net Revenue Retentionbase 118% · range 105%–128%$-8.4+$6.6Terminal EBITDA Marginbase 26% · range 20%–32%$-7.1+$6.9Top-line Growth (3-yr CAGR)base 42% · range 28%–55%$-5.8+$5.4WACCbase 11% · range 13%–9%$-4.7+$5.2Customer Acquisition Costbase $8.4K · range $11K–$6K$-3.6+$3.9Terminal Growth (g)base 2.5% · range 1.5%–3.5%$-2.4+$3.0HEATMAP · TWO-WAY · WACC × TERMINAL GROWTHImplied equity value per share · base case highlightedg 1.5%g 2%g 2.5%g 3%g 3.5%WACC9%$46$49$52$56$6010%$42$44$47$50$5411%$38$40$42$44$4712%$35$36$38$40$4213%$32$33$34$36$38Base case · $42 / share · biggest swings: NRR (±$8.4), terminal margin (±$7), revenue growth (±$5.8)

Tornado readout

Upside · driver moves favorablyDownside · driver moves unfavorablyVariables ranked by absolute impactBase case · $42 / share

Heatmap mechanics

Higher implied valueLower implied valueBase-case cell · WACC 11% · g 2.5%Two-way grid · 25 cases

Inputs profiled

  • Driver list. The 6–10 variables that actually move the answer - not 80 cells of noise - selected with finance.

  • Reasonable ranges. Per-driver low/base/high tied to historical actuals, plan ranges, or peer benchmarks. Sourced, not invented.

  • Pairing logic. Which two-way grids are actually decision-relevant: WACC × g, multiple × terminal margin, retention × CAC.

  • Threshold signals. Covenant ratios, cash-out triggers, dilution thresholds - captured so the model can flag them automatically.

Outputs leadership uses

  • Tornado. Single chart ranking driver sensitivities - the one-pager that answers "what should we argue about?".

  • Two-way grids. 5×5 heatmaps for each paired driver, with the base case highlighted and breakage points flagged.

  • Scenario stack. Base / bull / bear cases as a side-by-side, with the deltas decomposed by driver, not just headline.

  • Decision memo. One-page write-up tying the sensitivity to the decision in front of leadership - go/no-go ready.

What you get, every week

Honest range, not a fake point

Every forecast ships with a range and a decomposition of why it's wide. Leadership argues about drivers, not estimates.

Reusable model engine

The sensitivity engine plugs into the next forecast without rebuilding. Future cycles inherit the discipline.

Auditable assumption stack

Every range is sourced. When the answer changes, you can show whether the assumption set or the world moved.

See this in your industry

How finance & accounting reads for each sector we serve.

Technology
Retail & Consumer
Media & Entertainment
Banking & Capital Markets
Manufacturing
Insurance
Healthcare
Energy
Defense & Aerospace
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