Revenue Forecasting

A bottoms-up revenue model wired to your acquisition cohorts, retention curves, ARPU mix, and live pipeline - every dollar of forecast is traceable to a customer cohort or an open opportunity, not a top-down assumption.

What the managed workflow does

Builds cohort retention curves

Every acquisition cohort gets a retention curve derived from actuals. Triangles update as new months close. No more averaging across mixed cohorts.

Layers in pipeline-driven new logos

Open pipeline by stage and close date feeds the new-cohort assumption. Stage probability and slip factors are tunable per segment.

Sensitizes the curve

Plus/minus retention scenarios, ARPU mix shifts, and pipeline conversion deltas roll through. Three forecast bands, same source.

Reconciles to bookings

Forecast ARR ties to billing actuals each close. Variance is decomposed into retention drift, expansion, and pipeline misses.

Cohort retention triangle · driving the ARR forecast curve

8 Cohorts · 268 Customers · $1.69M ARR by Q4 '26

Triangle inputs (per cohort)

≥ 95% retained · cohort core80–94% retained< 80% retainedFuture months · forecast cells

Forecast curve drivers

Actual ARR (closed quarters)Cohort-weighted forecastPipeline-tied add-on cohortsSensitivity · ±10% scenarios

Inputs to the model

Acquisition cohorts. Every customer's start month and segment, sourced from billing or CRM closed-won.
Retention actuals. Per-cohort dollar retention measured each month - feeds the triangle directly.
Pipeline + stage logic. Open opportunities with stage probability and historical slip factors drive the new-cohort assumption.
ARPU & expansion. Per-segment starting ARPU and observed expansion rates by tenure month.

Outputs leadership uses

Cohort triangle. The retention picture across every cohort - the visual leadership and investors want first.
ARR forecast band. Base / bull / bear curves with the same triangle and three pipeline conversion assumptions.
Reconciliation memo. Quarterly variance memo decomposing forecast misses into retention, expansion, and new-logo factors.
Driver tree. Diagram showing every assumption that moves the forecast - single page, board-ready.

What you get, every week